GDP growth
rate revised to 6.4 per cent for 1999-2000
Quick estimates
of national income, consumption expenditure, saving and capital formation
released by the Central Statistical Organisation on 30.01.2001 pegged the
GDP at constant prices in 1999-2000 at Rs.1,151,991 crore compared to Rs.1,083,047
crore in 1998-99.
The growth
rate of GDP and the various sectors of the economy are given below :
GDP |
1998-99
(Percent) |
1999-2000
(Percent) |
Agriculture |
7.1 |
0.7 |
Manufacturing
Sector |
2.5 |
6.8 |
Mining and
Quarrying |
1.3 |
1.7 |
Trade, Hotels
and Restaurants |
7 |
7.9 |
Financing,
insurance real estate and business service |
8.4 |
10.1 |
Banking and
Insurance |
10.5 |
12.3 |
Real estate
and business services |
6.1 |
7.5 |
Transport,
storage and communication sector |
7.3 |
8.3 |
Railways |
1.8 |
9 |
Electricity,
gas and water supply |
6.4 |
5.2 |
Export growth
touches 20.42% mark
Export growth
during the first nine months of the current fiscal continued at 20.42 per
cent though growth during December came down to 17.33 per cent.
The total value
of exports from April to December is calculated at $32.26 billion, while
for the month of December exports are estimated at $3.59 billion. The growth
in exports has helped to shrink the trade deficit to $5.88 billion which
is lower than last years' level of $8.22 billion.
Non-oil imports
are 8.31 per cent lower than the corresponding period last year. In absolute
terms it is $25.7 billion against $28.03 billion in the same period last
fiscal. The total import bill is $38.15 billion for April to December 2000
representing a growth of 8.95 per cent over the corresponding period last
year.
Oil imports
have risen by 78.23 per cent, representing an absolute growth of $12.45
billion compared to April-December in 1999-2000.
Forex reserves
cross $ 41 billion
Foreign currency
reserves crossed $ 41 billion for the week ending February 2 following
increased institutional inflows and remittances from abroad. The upsurge
continued with fresh inflows of $ 347 million during the same week, taking
the forex reserves to $41,274 million compared to $40,927 million in the
previous week.
Software
exports to touch $ 9.5 b by 2001-02
The government
has projected exports of software products to reach a level of $ 9.5 billion
by the year 2001-02 from $4.6 billion in 1999-2000, Shri Raman Singh Minister
of State for Commerce and Industry said at a seminar on opportunities in
IT and telecom sector at the India-expo 2001 in Dubai. Exports during the
current financial year are expected to reach a level of $6.3 billion.
FDI flows
touch $4.5 bn
The FDI inflows
into the country touched $ 4.5 billion during 2000, registering an increase
of 14.67 per cent over the inflow of $4 billion in the previous year.
The last two
years have shown a significant step-up in the inflow-approval ratio and
the current realisation rate of FDI into India is around 52 per cent, sustaining
the trend of 1999. The amount of FDI approved in 2000 stood at $8.6 billion
as against $6.7 billion in 1999, registering a growth of 30.57 per cent.
Referring to
the FDI performance at the meeting of the parliamentary consultative committee
attached to his ministry, the Union Minister of Commerce and Industry Shri
Murasoli Maran said the institutional mechanism of the Foreign Investment
Implementation Authority (FIIA) is yielding positive results. FIIA was
set up in 1999 to provide a single point interface between foreign investors
and the government both at the central and the state levels.
Panel recommends
setting up export fund, industrial parks in J&K
The Report
of the Committee on promotion of exports from Jammu and Kashmir set up
by the department of commerce and industry under the chairmanship of Shri
H.A.C. Prasad, economic advisor, has recommended setting up of an export
development fund and export promotion industrial parks to boost exports
from the state.
The state has
a very good export potential in items like handicrafts and carpets, sports
goods, electronics and software, agro-products and leather goods, the panel
said adding it has suggested an export strategy taking into account all
the ground realities.
The export
development fund would take up specific activities such as setting up of
pioneering and pilot projects for exports, common facilities for exports
and standardisation and quality.
The report
has recommended the air cargo complex at Srinagar airport should be made
functional and walk in type cold storage for horticulture and floriculture
products as in Guwahati be also set up for Srinagar and Jammu.
It also suggested
setting up of two inland container depots (ICDS), an air cargo complex
and a trade-cum-exhibition centre.
Recommendations
of the committee have been broadly classified into four categories namely,
extension of the North-East region programme implemented by department
of commerce to J&K, extension of North-East package by other departments
relevant to exports, other schemes in the exim policy which could be relevant
to the state, and role of the state government in boosting exports. The
Committee has also said that since the state was located in a disadvantaged
region, the existing special economic zone (SEZ) should be modified to
provide suitable benefits to the state.
Economic
Survey for 2000-01 :
The economic
survey for 2000-01 presented in the Parliament on February 23, 2001 laid
stress on carrying out the reform agenda to get the economy out of the
groove of annual growth rate of average of 6%. The survey calls for a `credible
medium term programme for fiscal management'. Due to a surge in oil prices
and increased cost of debt servicing specially of RIB & IMD, there
is an increase in current account deficit. In the context of persistently
high deficits, the survey points to the urgency of framing this year's
fiscal strategy within the parameters of the Fiscal Responsibility Bill.
The overall
economic growth of GDP has been projected at 6% compared to 6.4% last year.
The services sector growth rate has fallen from 9.6% in 1999-2000 to 8.3%
in the current fiscal. Industrial growth is likely to be 6.6% as against
6.4% last year. Agricultural production will show a marginal increase of
0.9% after inclusion of production of commercial crop from 0.7% in the
last fiscal. Foodgrain production dropped to 199 m tonne this year from
208.9 m tonne in the previous fiscal. As per April-December 2000 data,
exports have increased by 20.4% and imports by 9.0% in terms of US dollars.
External debt dropped to 2.9% of GDP. The fiscal deficit of the Centre
and State governments, at present, is at 10% of GDP. The economic survey
indicates that while deciding the interest rate on small savings and pension
funds, the government needs to take inflation level into account and benchmark
administered rates against equivalent market instruments to put a cap on
its interest payments.
Key Macro
economic indicators are given below :
|
1999-2000
|
2000-01
|
1. Gross
national product (Rs.thousand crore)
At current
prices |
1771 |
1972.7 |
2. Gross
domestic product (Rs. thousand product)
At current
prices |
1786.4 |
1985.5 |
3. Foodgrains
production (million tonnes) |
208.9 |
199 |
4. Index
of industrial Production |
154.7 |
159.6 |
5. Electricity
generated (billion Kwh) |
480.7 |
372.6 |
6. Wholesale
price index |
150.9 |
158.1 |
7. Imports
at current prices (US $ million) |
47212 |
38150 |
8. Exports
at current prices (US $ million) |
37599 |
32266 |
9. Foreign
currency assets (US $ million) |
35058 |
38361 |
Major recommendations
made in the economic survey are as follows :-
Privatisation
:
-
It is necessary
to get the government out of the business of production and enhance its
performance in the provision of public goods. Accelerated privatisation
of the competitive segment of the public sector will serve in stimulating
industrial growth.
Subsidies :
-
There is a need
to reduce subsidies, target the remaining subsidies on the poor and search
for more efficient mechanism for protecting them.
Administered
Price Mechanism :
-
Deregulation of
coal and petroleum sectors so that fertilizer and power producers are free
to use any energy input, domestic or imported.
-
Need for comprehensive
de-control of production, storage, transport trade and processing of agricultural
goods and inputs used therein.
Tax Reforms
:
-
Systematic efforts
needed for abolishing economically unjustifiable exemptions and reductions.
-
Modernisation
of tax administration required.
-
More services
should be brought under the tax net to offset the likely loss of revenue
through lower customs tariffs.
Interest Costs
:
-
The administered
interest rates of pension and provident funds should take account of the
inflation base, the effective term of the deposits and available tax exemptions.
-
Urban Land Ceiling
Act and and Rent Control Laws to be modified.
Bankruptcy
Law :
-
Repeal of SICA,
dissolution of BIFR and inclusion of modern bankruptcy provisions in the
Companies Act should be done to facilitate restructuring of Indian industry.
Power Reforms
-
Pricing of power
by taking into account the cost of production-cum-distribution essential.
-
Transmission and
distribution losses need to be tackled on a war-footing to make efficient
pricing feasible.
|